Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yunnan Nantian Electronics Information Co.,Ltd. (000948.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.09 - $8.83$4.83
Multi-Stage$2.16 - $2.35$2.25
Blended Fair Value$3.54
Current Price$18.33
Upside-80.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.93%33.75%0.230.050.050.050.050.030.010.030.030.01
YoY Growth--358.19%0.00%3.46%0.00%54.56%150.00%-60.00%25.00%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.36%0.22%0.34%0.50%0.28%0.10%0.36%0.21%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.766.103.66
Cash Retained (M)19.2019.2019.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.76-6.10-3.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.4413.1015.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)391.82391.82391.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.09$4.83$8.83
Upside / Downside-83.15%-73.64%-51.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.8051.9755.3558.9562.7866.8668.87
Payout Ratio60.66%66.53%72.40%78.27%84.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.6034.5840.0746.1452.8260.1763.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.4531.7532.05
Year 2 PV (M)33.1633.7934.43
Year 3 PV (M)34.7235.7236.74
Year 4 PV (M)36.1637.5538.98
Year 5 PV (M)37.4739.2841.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)672.12704.58738.28
Equity Value (M)845.08882.67921.64
Shares Outstanding (M)391.82391.82391.82
Fair Value$2.16$2.25$2.35
Upside / Downside-88.23%-87.71%-87.17%

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