Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan TV & Broadcast Intermediary Co., Ltd. (000917.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.73 - $1.05$0.89
Multi-Stage$3.51 - $3.89$3.70
Blended Fair Value$2.29
Current Price$8.38
Upside-72.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.74%-4.72%0.090.080.110.170.210.020.230.260.290.24
YoY Growth--11.06%-20.36%-37.21%-19.52%1,092.31%-92.33%-14.09%-9.56%21.42%59.86%
Dividend Yield--1.16%1.27%1.72%3.03%4.56%0.29%2.46%3.38%2.20%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.4120.8812.53
Cash Retained (M)76.0676.0676.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.41-20.88-12.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.6555.1863.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,462.571,462.571,462.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate4.89%4.89%4.89%
Growth Rate-6.72%-5.72%-4.72%
Fair Value$0.73$0.89$1.05
Upside / Downside-91.24%-89.40%-87.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.06157.50148.49140.00131.99124.44128.18
Payout Ratio54.47%61.58%68.68%75.79%82.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.9996.98101.99106.10109.41112.00118.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.89%4.89%4.89%
Growth Rate-6.72%-5.72%-4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)91.4892.4693.44
Year 2 PV (M)90.7592.7094.68
Year 3 PV (M)89.0691.9594.91
Year 4 PV (M)86.6390.4094.30
Year 5 PV (M)83.6588.2393.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,691.704,948.635,216.70
Equity Value (M)5,133.265,404.385,687.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,462.571,462.571,462.57
Fair Value$3.51$3.70$3.89
Upside / Downside-58.12%-55.91%-53.60%

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