Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JiaoZuo WanFang Aluminum Manufacturing Co., Ltd (000612.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.11 - $159.48$67.48
Multi-Stage$22.76 - $24.96$23.84
Blended Fair Value$45.66
Current Price$8.64
Upside428.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.18%2.23%0.160.120.140.090.060.070.150.080.360.12
YoY Growth--39.35%-15.89%45.06%52.63%-14.84%-50.34%89.31%-78.51%192.41%-4.48%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.88%2.51%1.51%0.75%1.99%2.72%1.05%3.77%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)966.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)798.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.33120.8372.50
Cash Retained (M)798.45798.45798.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.33-120.83-72.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)605.12677.62725.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,192.071,192.071,192.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$32.11$67.48$159.48
Upside / Downside271.65%681.01%1,745.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)966.641,017.961,072.011,128.941,188.881,252.011,289.57
Payout Ratio17.40%31.92%46.44%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.18324.92497.84688.19897.361,126.811,192.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)302.43305.33308.23
Year 2 PV (M)431.30439.61447.99
Year 3 PV (M)554.94571.05587.48
Year 4 PV (M)673.52699.72726.68
Year 5 PV (M)787.18825.64865.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,386.7825,578.3726,816.09
Equity Value (M)27,136.1528,419.7229,752.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,192.071,192.071,192.07
Fair Value$22.76$23.84$24.96
Upside / Downside163.47%175.93%188.87%

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