Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guizhou Tyre Co.,Ltd. (000589.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.13 - $61.43$57.56
Multi-Stage$8.87 - $9.71$9.28
Blended Fair Value$33.42
Current Price$4.50
Upside642.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.15%6.14%0.260.220.080.130.090.100.090.100.130.15
YoY Growth--19.49%174.63%-38.47%38.56%-2.78%4.44%-8.96%-19.78%-14.22%1.95%
Dividend Yield--5.48%3.78%1.58%2.85%1.62%2.95%2.63%2.93%2.51%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)504.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)387.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.9963.1237.87
Cash Retained (M)387.75387.75387.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.99-63.12-37.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)286.76324.63349.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.911,634.911,634.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.13$57.56$61.43
Upside / Downside458.42%1,179.22%1,265.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)504.97537.79572.75609.97649.62691.85712.60
Payout Ratio23.21%36.57%49.93%63.29%76.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.22196.67285.96386.02497.89622.66659.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)182.87184.60186.34
Year 2 PV (M)247.23251.94256.69
Year 3 PV (M)310.32319.23328.31
Year 4 PV (M)372.16386.48401.20
Year 5 PV (M)432.77453.67475.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,951.2713,576.8214,226.31
Equity Value (M)14,496.6315,172.7515,874.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.911,634.911,634.91
Fair Value$8.87$9.28$9.71
Upside / Downside97.04%106.23%115.77%

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