Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wanxiang Qianchao Co.,Ltd. (000559.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.46 - $11.49$7.73
Multi-Stage$7.70 - $8.44$8.07
Blended Fair Value$7.90
Current Price$12.66
Upside-37.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.94%6.58%0.210.320.220.230.070.190.190.110.230.24
YoY Growth---34.19%44.88%-2.67%210.81%-61.83%1.72%76.57%-52.96%-5.43%114.93%
Dividend Yield--3.03%6.25%4.25%4.22%1.58%3.79%2.71%1.23%2.29%1.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,007.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)752.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)255.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)201.55125.9775.58
Cash Retained (M)255.57255.57255.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-201.55-125.97-75.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.02129.60179.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,313.223,313.223,313.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$5.46$7.73$11.49
Upside / Downside-56.88%-38.94%-9.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,007.751,037.891,068.951,100.931,133.861,167.791,202.82
Payout Ratio74.64%77.71%80.78%83.86%86.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)752.18806.57863.54923.19985.641,051.011,112.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)749.72757.07764.42
Year 2 PV (M)746.11760.81775.66
Year 3 PV (M)741.44763.46785.91
Year 4 PV (M)735.80765.09795.24
Year 5 PV (M)729.30765.76803.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,825.4722,916.6224,050.98
Equity Value (M)25,527.8526,728.8227,975.89
Shares Outstanding (M)3,313.223,313.223,313.22
Fair Value$7.70$8.07$8.44
Upside / Downside-39.14%-36.28%-33.30%

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