Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. (000513.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.41 - $475.55$445.66
Multi-Stage$69.18 - $75.73$72.40
Blended Fair Value$259.03
Current Price$38.45
Upside573.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.07%21.00%1.501.771.361.401.230.971.250.240.260.09
YoY Growth---15.68%30.79%-3.34%14.30%26.66%-22.51%418.21%-6.44%177.09%-58.14%
Dividend Yield--4.22%4.81%3.63%3.65%2.94%2.47%4.52%0.56%1.01%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,142.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)699.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,442.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)428.49267.81160.68
Cash Retained (M)1,442.971,442.971,442.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-428.49-267.81-160.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,014.471,175.161,282.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)895.98895.98895.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.311.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.311.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.41$445.66$475.55
Upside / Downside408.23%1,059.06%1,136.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,142.462,281.722,430.032,587.992,756.212,935.363,023.42
Payout Ratio32.65%44.12%55.59%67.06%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)699.501,006.681,350.841,735.492,164.442,641.822,796.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)936.08944.95953.82
Year 2 PV (M)1,168.001,190.251,212.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,395.351,435.401,476.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,618.171,680.401,744.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,836.551,925.252,017.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,033.0257,691.1360,450.98
Equity Value (M)61,987.1664,867.3967,855.49
Shares Outstanding (M)895.98895.98895.98
Fair Value$69.18$72.40$75.73
Upside / Downside79.93%88.29%96.97%

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