Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

BA Airport Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (BAREIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.37 - $9.32$7.79
Multi-Stage$11.86 - $12.99$12.42
Blended Fair Value$10.11
Current Price$9.35
Upside8.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.730.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--26.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.94%5.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)871.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)778.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.27108.9265.35
Cash Retained (M)92.4892.4892.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.27-108.92-65.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-81.79-16.4427.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.37$7.79$9.32
Upside / Downside-31.83%-16.65%-0.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)871.36862.65854.02845.48837.03828.66853.52
Payout Ratio89.39%89.51%89.63%89.75%89.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)778.88772.15765.48758.86752.30745.79789.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)705.28712.47719.67
Year 2 PV (M)638.63651.73664.96
Year 3 PV (M)578.27596.16614.40
Year 4 PV (M)523.62545.32567.69
Year 5 PV (M)474.14498.83524.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,336.059,822.2010,328.39
Equity Value (M)12,255.9812,826.7013,419.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
Fair Value$11.86$12.42$12.99
Upside / Downside26.89%32.80%38.94%

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