Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$180.47 - $409.40$262.30
Multi-Stage$130.35 - $142.32$136.22
Blended Fair Value$199.26
Current Price$192.62
Upside3.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.20%8.34%2.251.871.751.511.271.211.131.091.081.03
YoY Growth--20.47%6.96%15.89%18.96%4.65%7.35%3.94%1.10%4.62%1.49%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.31%2.95%2.19%1.45%3.87%4.03%4.55%4.11%3.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)307.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)797.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.06138.1682.90
Cash Retained (M)797.48797.48797.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.06-138.16-82.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)576.42659.32714.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.22124.22124.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.645.315.75
LTM Dividend per Share2.482.482.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.645.315.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.127.798.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$180.47$262.30$409.40
Upside / Downside-6.31%36.18%112.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.301,177.151,253.661,335.151,421.941,514.361,559.79
Payout Ratio27.85%40.28%52.71%65.14%77.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)307.83474.15660.81869.721,103.001,362.931,442.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)428.32432.38436.44
Year 2 PV (M)539.23549.50559.87
Year 3 PV (M)641.10659.51678.26
Year 4 PV (M)734.47762.72791.77
Year 5 PV (M)819.83859.43900.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,028.9813,658.2914,311.68
Equity Value (M)16,191.9416,921.8217,678.55
Shares Outstanding (M)124.22124.22124.22
Fair Value$130.35$136.22$142.32
Upside / Downside-32.33%-29.28%-26.12%

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