Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Verallia S.A. (VRLA.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.07 - $49.70$40.94
Multi-Stage$69.26 - $75.95$72.54
Blended Fair Value$56.74
Current Price$28.20
Upside101.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.141.391.040.970.110.000.000.000.740.00
YoY Growth--53.79%33.50%7.44%771.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.81%3.99%3.29%3.13%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.62%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)452.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5057.8134.69
Cash Retained (M)10.2010.2010.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.50-57.81-34.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-82.30-47.61-24.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.80117.80117.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.40-0.21
LTM Dividend per Share3.843.843.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.40-0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.443.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.31%7.31%7.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$33.07$40.94$49.70
Upside / Downside17.28%45.19%76.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.50457.88453.30448.76444.28439.83453.03
Payout Ratio97.79%96.24%94.68%93.12%91.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)452.30440.64429.17417.88406.77395.85419.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.31%7.31%7.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)406.49410.63414.78
Year 2 PV (M)365.22372.71380.28
Year 3 PV (M)328.05338.20348.55
Year 4 PV (M)294.58306.79319.38
Year 5 PV (M)264.45278.22292.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,500.296,838.787,191.22
Equity Value (M)8,159.098,545.338,946.77
Shares Outstanding (M)117.80117.80117.80
Fair Value$69.26$72.54$75.95
Upside / Downside145.62%157.24%169.33%

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