Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.95 - $85.31$61.24
Multi-Stage$40.43 - $44.25$42.30
Blended Fair Value$51.77
Current Price$98.86
Upside-47.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.79%0.00%0.270.240.230.220.210.190.130.040.000.00
YoY Growth--9.07%5.81%3.76%7.73%7.67%52.33%201.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.84%1.10%0.66%0.40%0.91%0.27%0.21%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.476.553.93
Cash Retained (M)47.0247.0247.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.47-6.55-3.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.5540.4743.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.492.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$44.95$61.24$85.31
Upside / Downside-54.53%-38.05%-13.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.3755.0257.8060.7263.7967.0269.03
Payout Ratio10.22%26.17%42.13%58.09%74.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.3514.4024.3535.2747.2360.3263.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)13.0513.1713.30
Year 2 PV (M)19.9920.3720.76
Year 3 PV (M)26.2326.9927.77
Year 4 PV (M)31.8233.0634.33
Year 5 PV (M)36.8138.6140.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)615.33645.47676.78
Equity Value (M)743.21777.67813.42
Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
Fair Value$40.43$42.30$44.25
Upside / Downside-59.10%-57.21%-55.24%

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