Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$136.82 - $290.16$194.23
Multi-Stage$100.72 - $109.96$105.26
Blended Fair Value$149.74
Current Price$200.58
Upside-25.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020202019201820172016
DPS8.05%6.50%1.601.501.401.201.161.091.030.970.930.89
YoY Growth--6.77%7.23%16.75%3.47%6.48%5.92%5.24%4.43%4.56%4.76%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.22%1.08%0.85%1.07%0.90%0.83%1.27%1.08%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)480.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)364.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.0260.0136.01
Cash Retained (M)364.87364.87364.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.02-60.01-36.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.86304.86328.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.8165.8165.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.094.635.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.094.635.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.846.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$136.82$194.23$290.16
Upside / Downside-31.79%-3.17%44.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)480.08511.28544.52579.91617.61657.75677.48
Payout Ratio24.00%37.20%50.40%63.60%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.21190.19274.43368.82474.32591.97626.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)171.27172.90174.52
Year 2 PV (M)222.56226.80231.08
Year 3 PV (M)269.37277.10284.98
Year 4 PV (M)311.97323.97336.31
Year 5 PV (M)350.63367.57385.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,302.645,558.765,824.69
Equity Value (M)6,628.446,927.097,236.72
Shares Outstanding (M)65.8165.8165.81
Fair Value$100.72$105.26$109.96
Upside / Downside-49.78%-47.52%-45.18%

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