Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ryder System, Inc. (R)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$364.44 - $1,668.60$640.12
Multi-Stage$297.85 - $326.39$311.85
Blended Fair Value$475.99
Current Price$188.64
Upside152.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.00%6.07%3.173.012.892.872.802.742.632.252.141.95
YoY Growth--5.47%4.07%0.82%2.49%2.20%4.12%16.75%5.24%9.43%11.13%
Dividend Yield--2.20%2.50%3.24%3.61%3.70%10.34%4.12%3.09%2.83%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)142.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.4062.7537.65
Cash Retained (M)360.00360.00360.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.40-62.75-37.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.60297.25322.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.5842.5842.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.106.987.57
LTM Dividend per Share3.333.333.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.106.987.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4310.3210.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Fair Value$364.44$640.12$1,668.60
Upside / Downside93.20%239.33%784.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)502.00527.46554.22582.33611.87642.90662.19
Payout Ratio28.29%40.63%52.97%65.31%77.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)142.00214.31293.58380.35475.16578.61612.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Year 1 PV (M)198.82200.73202.64
Year 2 PV (M)252.67257.55262.48
Year 3 PV (M)303.69312.53321.53
Year 4 PV (M)351.97365.69379.81
Year 5 PV (M)397.62417.09437.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,178.3811,725.8412,294.56
Equity Value (M)12,683.1413,279.4313,898.34
Shares Outstanding (M)42.5842.5842.58
Fair Value$297.85$311.85$326.39
Upside / Downside57.89%65.32%73.02%

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