Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PPL Corporation (PPL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.64 - $27.52$21.46
Multi-Stage$41.39 - $45.54$43.43
Blended Fair Value$32.44
Current Price$33.89
Upside-4.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.92%-2.55%1.010.951.061.721.721.611.531.441.391.35
YoY Growth--6.11%-10.55%-38.47%0.31%6.96%5.21%5.69%4.08%2.59%3.83%
Dividend Yield--2.79%3.45%3.81%6.03%5.96%6.51%4.82%5.10%3.71%3.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,092.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)783.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)309.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.40136.5081.90
Cash Retained (M)309.00309.00309.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.40-136.50-81.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.60172.50227.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)742.32742.32742.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.230.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.230.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate5.73%5.73%5.73%
Growth Rate-1.25%-0.25%0.75%
Fair Value$16.64$21.46$27.52
Upside / Downside-50.89%-36.67%-18.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,092.001,089.281,086.571,083.861,081.161,078.471,110.83
Payout Ratio71.70%75.36%79.02%82.68%86.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)783.00820.91858.63896.15933.48970.621,027.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.73%5.73%5.73%
Growth Rate-1.25%-0.25%0.75%
Year 1 PV (M)768.62776.40784.18
Year 2 PV (M)752.72768.04783.52
Year 3 PV (M)735.57758.14781.17
Year 4 PV (M)717.40746.90777.31
Year 5 PV (M)698.43734.51772.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,053.6028,451.4229,906.42
Equity Value (M)30,726.3332,235.4233,804.68
Shares Outstanding (M)742.32742.32742.32
Fair Value$41.39$43.43$45.54
Upside / Downside22.14%28.14%34.37%

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