Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Prodigy Public Company Limited (PDG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.68 - $2.33$2.00
Multi-Stage$2.95 - $3.23$3.09
Blended Fair Value$2.55
Current Price$2.78
Upside-8.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.26%3.73%0.170.060.150.290.180.180.200.230.200.16
YoY Growth--182.99%-60.73%-47.02%60.36%-0.62%-9.46%-12.22%13.64%22.22%39.26%
Dividend Yield--6.37%2.40%4.68%7.76%5.25%7.82%7.74%6.73%4.94%4.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0610.666.40
Cash Retained (M)8.238.238.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.06-10.66-6.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.83-2.431.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)296.88296.88296.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.26%-2.26%-1.26%
Fair Value$1.68$2.00$2.33
Upside / Downside-39.69%-27.92%-16.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.3283.3981.5079.6577.8576.0878.37
Payout Ratio90.35%90.28%90.21%90.14%90.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.0875.2873.5271.8070.1268.4872.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.26%-2.26%-1.26%
Year 1 PV (M)67.7468.4469.14
Year 2 PV (M)59.5260.7662.01
Year 3 PV (M)52.3053.9455.62
Year 4 PV (M)45.9647.8949.88
Year 5 PV (M)40.3942.5244.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)610.77643.00676.57
Equity Value (M)876.68916.54957.95
Shares Outstanding (M)296.88296.88296.88
Fair Value$2.95$3.09$3.23
Upside / Downside6.22%11.05%16.07%

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