Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$327.22 - $1,015.62$951.78
Multi-Stage$142.30 - $155.45$148.76
Blended Fair Value$550.27
Current Price$98.32
Upside459.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.98%13.88%4.342.881.911.342.352.161.531.061.571.29
YoY Growth--50.70%51.15%41.91%-42.89%8.89%41.56%44.06%-32.68%21.87%9.09%
Dividend Yield--4.46%2.34%2.61%2.29%3.80%5.30%3.32%2.40%3.51%3.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,690.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,251.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)439.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)538.18336.36201.82
Cash Retained (M)439.80439.80439.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-538.18-336.36-201.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-98.38103.44237.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.77526.77526.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.200.45
LTM Dividend per Share4.274.274.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.200.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.094.474.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$327.22$951.78$1,015.62
Upside / Downside232.81%868.04%932.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,690.902,865.003,050.363,247.713,457.833,681.553,791.99
Payout Ratio83.66%84.92%86.19%87.46%88.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,251.102,433.092,629.212,840.533,068.183,313.393,507.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2,257.052,278.452,299.85
Year 2 PV (M)2,262.522,305.632,349.14
Year 3 PV (M)2,267.512,332.622,398.96
Year 4 PV (M)2,272.032,359.432,449.33
Year 5 PV (M)2,276.092,386.062,500.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,625.0466,699.0569,890.74
Equity Value (M)74,960.2378,361.2381,888.25
Shares Outstanding (M)526.77526.77526.77
Fair Value$142.30$148.76$155.45
Upside / Downside44.73%51.30%58.11%

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