Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Origin Enterprises plc (OIZ.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.95 - $16.70$12.92
Multi-Stage$12.70 - $13.91$13.29
Blended Fair Value$13.10
Current Price$3.72
Upside252.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.81%-3.34%0.160.160.160.120.030.240.230.230.230.27
YoY Growth---3.82%3.06%33.76%239.96%-85.23%1.55%0.00%0.00%-13.04%21.15%
Dividend Yield--4.23%5.23%4.96%3.03%1.01%8.75%4.50%3.77%3.65%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6411.656.99
Cash Retained (M)56.8156.8156.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.64-11.65-6.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1745.1649.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.33113.33113.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$9.95$12.92$16.70
Upside / Downside167.59%247.19%349.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.1895.7598.40101.11103.90106.77109.98
Payout Ratio39.03%49.23%59.42%69.61%79.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3747.1458.4770.3982.9296.09101.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)43.0343.4543.87
Year 2 PV (M)48.7249.6850.65
Year 3 PV (M)53.5455.1356.76
Year 4 PV (M)57.5759.8762.23
Year 5 PV (M)60.9063.9567.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,175.431,234.331,295.57
Equity Value (M)1,439.181,506.411,576.20
Shares Outstanding (M)113.33113.33113.33
Fair Value$12.70$13.29$13.91
Upside / Downside241.38%257.33%273.88%

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