Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk (MPMX.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$767.01 - $1,075.37$920.42
Multi-Stage$1,421.85 - $1,554.75$1,487.04
Blended Fair Value$1,203.73
Current Price$935.00
Upside28.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.61%0.00%114.91134.65179.00113.3788.61471.760.00125.7826.466.97
YoY Growth---14.66%-24.78%57.89%27.95%-81.22%0.00%-100.00%375.39%279.75%0.00%
Dividend Yield--11.61%13.07%14.61%10.08%15.68%102.56%0.00%15.43%3.09%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)548,368.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)525,579.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,789.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109,673.6068,546.0041,127.60
Cash Retained (M)22,789.0022,789.0022,789.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-109,673.60-68,546.00-41,127.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-86,884.60-45,757.00-18,338.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,377.754,377.754,377.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-19.85-10.45-4.19
LTM Dividend per Share120.06120.06120.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share-19.85-10.45-4.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.21109.60115.87
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Fair Value$767.01$920.42$1,075.37
Upside / Downside-17.97%-1.56%15.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)548,368.00535,915.96523,746.67511,853.71500,230.82488,871.85503,538.00
Payout Ratio95.84%94.68%93.51%92.34%91.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)525,579.00507,380.42489,737.33472,633.87456,054.65439,984.66465,772.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)459,177.39463,924.42468,671.46
Year 2 PV (M)401,103.80409,440.00417,861.94
Year 3 PV (M)350,320.22361,297.90372,502.55
Year 4 PV (M)305,917.29318,765.28332,013.77
Year 5 PV (M)267,098.51281,193.44295,877.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,440,891.304,675,239.564,919,378.38
Equity Value (M)6,224,508.516,509,860.616,806,305.33
Shares Outstanding (M)4,377.754,377.754,377.75
Fair Value$1,421.85$1,487.04$1,554.75
Upside / Downside52.07%59.04%66.28%

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