Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

MFC-Strategic Storage Fund (M-STOR.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.50 - $4.95$4.21
Multi-Stage$5.75 - $6.28$6.01
Blended Fair Value$5.11
Current Price$7.05
Upside-27.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.98%-5.88%0.450.400.330.370.370.400.570.720.710.73
YoY Growth--11.25%19.55%-8.58%-0.81%-8.53%-28.60%-20.98%0.70%-2.47%-10.78%
Dividend Yield--6.18%5.52%5.53%5.95%6.00%6.56%9.19%11.63%11.54%11.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.514.072.44
Cash Retained (M)5.775.775.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.51-4.07-2.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.731.713.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.8060.8060.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.50$4.21$4.95
Upside / Downside-50.42%-40.24%-29.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.5332.2031.8831.5631.2430.9331.86
Payout Ratio82.25%83.80%85.35%86.90%88.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7526.9827.2127.4327.6427.8429.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24.2824.5324.78
Year 2 PV (M)22.0322.4922.94
Year 3 PV (M)19.9920.6121.24
Year 4 PV (M)18.1218.8819.65
Year 5 PV (M)16.4317.2918.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)248.48261.42274.89
Equity Value (M)349.34365.20381.67
Shares Outstanding (M)60.8060.8060.80
Fair Value$5.75$6.01$6.28
Upside / Downside-18.50%-14.80%-10.96%

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