Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lotus's Retail Growth Freehold and Leasehold Property Fund (LPF.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.72 - $8.10$6.89
Multi-Stage$10.00 - $10.94$10.46
Blended Fair Value$8.68
Current Price$10.70
Upside-18.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.72%2.30%0.870.800.680.770.900.900.860.860.810.75
YoY Growth--8.66%17.82%-11.65%-15.11%0.46%4.97%-0.70%6.08%8.83%8.10%
Dividend Yield--6.94%6.01%4.88%4.86%4.50%4.37%4.54%5.14%4.99%5.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,041.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,705.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)336.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)408.31255.19153.12
Cash Retained (M)336.32336.32336.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-408.31-255.19-153.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)-71.9981.12183.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,337.282,337.282,337.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.030.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.030.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate-2.49%-1.49%-0.49%
Fair Value$5.72$6.89$8.10
Upside / Downside-46.58%-35.57%-24.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,041.562,011.081,981.051,951.471,922.331,893.621,950.43
Payout Ratio83.53%84.82%86.12%87.41%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,705.241,705.821,706.001,705.791,705.211,704.261,804.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate-2.49%-1.49%-0.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1,543.021,558.851,574.67
Year 2 PV (M)1,395.911,424.691,453.76
Year 3 PV (M)1,262.541,301.781,341.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,141.661,189.221,238.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,032.131,086.161,142.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,997.7317,887.4118,813.96
Equity Value (M)23,372.9924,448.1025,564.89
Shares Outstanding (M)2,337.282,337.282,337.28
Fair Value$10.00$10.46$10.94
Upside / Downside-6.54%-2.24%2.22%

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