Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Klabin S.A. (KLBN11.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.44 - $22.87$12.99
Multi-Stage$6.11 - $6.65$6.37
Blended Fair Value$9.68
Current Price$18.04
Upside-46.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.30%16.75%0.320.300.340.120.050.200.170.100.090.08
YoY Growth--5.70%-10.94%185.75%160.51%-76.70%13.93%65.68%13.30%18.39%13.84%
Dividend Yield--1.72%1.29%2.10%0.56%0.19%1.41%1.13%0.60%0.71%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,719.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,368.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)343.92214.95128.97
Cash Retained (M)351.01351.01351.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-343.92-214.95-128.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.09136.06222.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,863.244,863.244,863.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.44$12.99$22.87
Upside / Downside-53.23%-28.02%26.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,719.581,831.351,950.392,077.172,212.182,355.972,426.65
Payout Ratio79.59%81.67%83.75%85.83%87.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,368.571,495.671,633.501,782.941,944.892,120.382,244.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,358.821,371.701,384.58
Year 2 PV (M)1,348.261,373.941,399.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,336.961,375.341,414.44
Year 4 PV (M)1,324.971,375.921,428.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,312.351,375.741,441.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,011.2024,122.6525,276.63
Equity Value (M)29,692.5630,995.2932,345.41
Shares Outstanding (M)4,863.244,863.244,863.24
Fair Value$6.11$6.37$6.65
Upside / Downside-66.16%-64.67%-63.13%

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