Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kellanova (K)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.35 - $70.90$54.89
Multi-Stage$139.28 - $153.55$146.27
Blended Fair Value$100.58
Current Price$77.94
Upside29.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.18%1.33%2.222.292.282.252.242.202.182.102.052.00
YoY Growth---3.00%0.38%1.14%0.77%1.69%0.92%3.53%2.79%2.29%2.94%
Dividend Yield--2.69%3.99%3.63%3.66%3.76%3.94%4.05%3.45%3.00%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,277.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)794.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)483.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)255.40159.6395.78
Cash Retained (M)483.00483.00483.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-255.40-159.63-95.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)227.60323.38387.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)349.75349.75349.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.921.11
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.921.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.923.193.38
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Fair Value$42.35$54.89$70.90
Upside / Downside-45.67%-29.57%-9.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,277.001,266.551,256.181,245.901,235.701,225.581,262.35
Payout Ratio62.18%67.74%73.31%78.87%84.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)794.00857.98920.86982.651,043.371,103.021,167.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)809.24817.48825.72
Year 2 PV (M)819.21835.98852.92
Year 3 PV (M)824.52849.97875.94
Year 4 PV (M)825.73859.89895.10
Year 5 PV (M)823.36866.15910.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,610.8346,929.4449,343.47
Equity Value (M)48,712.8951,158.9153,703.86
Shares Outstanding (M)349.75349.75349.75
Fair Value$139.28$146.27$153.55
Upside / Downside78.70%87.67%97.01%

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