Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.23 - $281.59$232.44
Multi-Stage$37.12 - $40.51$38.78
Blended Fair Value$135.61
Current Price$13.69
Upside890.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.97%19.89%1.381.270.720.580.520.510.280.270.290.22
YoY Growth--8.88%76.63%23.36%11.56%1.98%81.17%5.97%-7.45%29.02%-0.87%
Dividend Yield--10.11%8.39%4.77%4.43%3.39%3.63%1.53%1.62%1.59%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)368.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.3347.0828.25
Cash Retained (M)8.448.448.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.33-47.08-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-66.89-38.64-19.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)266.00266.00266.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.25-0.15-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.381.381.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.25-0.15-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.241.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.23$232.44$281.59
Upside / Downside456.84%1,597.87%1,956.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.65401.13427.20454.97484.54516.04531.52
Payout Ratio97.76%96.21%94.66%93.10%91.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)368.21385.92404.37423.59443.61464.43491.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)357.06360.44363.83
Year 2 PV (M)346.15352.75359.40
Year 3 PV (M)335.49345.12354.94
Year 4 PV (M)325.07337.57350.43
Year 5 PV (M)314.88330.09345.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,194.788,590.599,001.55
Equity Value (M)9,873.4410,316.5710,776.03
Shares Outstanding (M)266.00266.00266.00
Fair Value$37.12$38.78$40.51
Upside / Downside171.13%183.30%195.91%

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