Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.16 - $851.56$314.03
Multi-Stage$89.42 - $97.82$93.55
Blended Fair Value$203.79
Current Price$35.06
Upside481.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.26%9.27%1.482.935.322.070.400.220.230.200.350.62
YoY Growth---49.57%-45.01%156.96%411.67%83.57%-6.04%17.32%-42.53%-44.19%2.59%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.74%10.51%3.50%1.85%3.19%0.74%0.63%0.83%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,106.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.80339.88203.93
Cash Retained (M)2,106.002,106.002,106.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.80-339.88-203.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,562.201,766.131,902.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.433.753.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$159.16$314.03$851.56
Upside / Downside353.96%795.70%2,328.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,719.002,895.743,083.963,284.423,497.903,725.273,837.02
Payout Ratio22.55%36.04%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)613.001,043.511,527.392,069.772,676.213,352.743,549.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)959.18968.27977.36
Year 2 PV (M)1,290.491,315.071,339.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,607.421,653.571,700.58
Year 4 PV (M)1,910.421,983.892,059.46
Year 5 PV (M)2,199.952,306.202,416.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,817.1651,175.0453,623.17
Equity Value (M)56,784.6259,402.0562,116.99
Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
Fair Value$89.42$93.55$97.82
Upside / Downside155.06%166.82%179.01%

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