Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. (CXSE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.42 - $58.16$38.93
Multi-Stage$21.71 - $23.62$22.65
Blended Fair Value$30.79
Current Price$15.11
Upside103.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.06%0.00%1.081.010.650.610.610.080.440.260.170.00
YoY Growth--6.95%55.75%6.03%-0.49%685.72%-82.14%65.68%56.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.25%6.58%7.37%6.88%8.20%1.04%5.84%3.52%2.26%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,386.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,527.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)859.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)877.32548.32328.99
Cash Retained (M)859.11859.11859.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-877.32-548.32-328.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.20310.79530.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.100.18
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.100.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.42$38.93$58.16
Upside / Downside81.50%157.65%284.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,386.584,671.714,975.375,298.775,643.196,009.996,190.29
Payout Ratio80.41%82.33%84.25%86.17%88.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,527.473,846.314,191.704,565.744,970.695,409.005,726.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,463.813,496.653,529.48
Year 2 PV (M)3,399.463,464.213,529.57
Year 3 PV (M)3,334.583,430.313,527.84
Year 4 PV (M)3,269.323,395.053,524.37
Year 5 PV (M)3,203.823,358.563,519.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,451.3550,791.5653,221.35
Equity Value (M)65,122.3467,936.3470,851.84
Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
Fair Value$21.71$22.65$23.62
Upside / Downside43.66%49.87%56.30%

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