Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG-PD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.18 - $216.49$128.54
Multi-Stage$107.83 - $118.31$112.97
Blended Fair Value$120.75
Current Price$53.16
Upside127.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.50%-0.47%1.751.841.771.521.531.401.070.730.550.49
YoY Growth---4.83%3.72%16.27%-0.30%8.91%31.00%46.27%33.61%12.62%-73.45%
Dividend Yield--4.27%5.16%5.83%3.36%3.46%7.46%3.17%1.74%1.59%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,704.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)743.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)961.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)340.80213.00127.80
Cash Retained (M)961.00961.00961.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-340.80-213.00-127.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)620.20748.00833.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)439.76439.76439.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.411.701.89
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.411.701.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.103.393.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate2.50%3.50%4.50%
Fair Value$85.18$128.54$216.49
Upside / Downside60.24%141.79%307.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,704.001,763.691,825.471,889.411,955.602,024.102,084.82
Payout Ratio43.60%52.88%62.16%71.44%80.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)743.00932.691,134.751,349.821,578.571,821.691,928.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate2.50%3.50%4.50%
Year 1 PV (M)869.48877.96886.44
Year 2 PV (M)986.161,005.501,025.02
Year 3 PV (M)1,093.571,125.891,158.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,192.231,239.441,288.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,282.611,346.411,412.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,997.3844,086.3446,257.60
Equity Value (M)47,421.4349,681.5452,028.67
Shares Outstanding (M)439.76439.76439.76
Fair Value$107.83$112.97$118.31
Upside / Downside102.85%112.52%122.56%

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