Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Automotive Systems, Inc. (CAAS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$187.31 - $220.68$206.81
Multi-Stage$147.13 - $161.42$154.14
Blended Fair Value$180.48
Current Price$4.71
Upside3,731.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%17.99%0.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.01
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%115.87%-94.13%
Dividend Yield--16.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.36%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.704.192.51
Cash Retained (M)9.289.289.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.70-4.19-2.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.585.096.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.1730.1730.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.170.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.170.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate-0.49%-0.49%-0.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$187.31$206.81$220.68
Upside / Downside3,876.84%4,290.89%4,585.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.4835.6637.9840.4443.0745.8747.25
Payout Ratio72.30%75.84%79.38%82.92%86.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.2127.0430.1433.5437.2441.2943.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.49%-0.49%-0.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.9227.1727.43
Year 2 PV (M)29.8730.4431.02
Year 3 PV (M)33.0834.0335.00
Year 4 PV (M)36.5737.9839.42
Year 5 PV (M)40.3642.3144.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,272.644,479.014,693.28
Equity Value (M)4,439.444,650.944,870.48
Shares Outstanding (M)30.1730.1730.17
Fair Value$147.13$154.14$161.42
Upside / Downside3,023.79%3,172.62%3,327.09%

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