Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

BNP Paribas S.A. (BNP.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,225.98 - $3,801.25$3,562.10
Multi-Stage$1,174.90 - $1,288.82$1,230.79
Blended Fair Value$2,396.45
Current Price$76.27
Upside3,042.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.30%13.23%5.154.684.253.930.373.463.503.001.590.56
YoY Growth--10.06%10.14%8.19%963.38%-89.32%-1.29%16.84%88.50%184.34%-62.39%
Dividend Yield--8.74%7.45%7.93%6.47%0.85%6.51%8.99%4.85%2.65%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,186.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,847.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,437.202,773.251,663.95
Cash Retained (M)10,847.0010,847.0010,847.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,437.20-2,773.25-1,663.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,409.808,073.759,183.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.741,152.741,152.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.567.007.97
LTM Dividend per Share9.849.849.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.567.007.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.4016.8417.80
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Fair Value$3,225.98$3,562.10$3,801.25
Upside / Downside4,129.68%4,570.38%4,883.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,186.0023,463.7824,815.1526,244.3527,755.8629,354.4330,235.06
Payout Ratio51.11%58.89%66.67%74.44%82.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,339.0013,817.1316,543.0919,537.2222,821.3626,418.9827,967.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Year 1 PV (M)13,075.9013,200.7213,325.53
Year 2 PV (M)14,815.7715,099.9715,386.88
Year 3 PV (M)16,558.6217,037.3517,525.22
Year 4 PV (M)18,304.4519,013.4419,742.82
Year 5 PV (M)20,053.2721,028.8322,041.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,271,544.261,333,402.811,397,645.72
Equity Value (M)1,354,352.271,418,783.111,485,668.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.741,152.741,152.74
Fair Value$1,174.90$1,230.79$1,288.82
Upside / Downside1,440.45%1,513.73%1,589.81%

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