Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Civitas Resources, Inc. (BCEI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.85 - $271.14$181.50
Multi-Stage$103.46 - $112.45$107.88
Blended Fair Value$144.69
Current Price$56.10
Upside157.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.287.055.740.650.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.21%22.98%783.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.40%12.57%10.22%1.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)627.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)10.1710.1710.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-117.46-69.60-37.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
LTM Dividend per Share6.716.716.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.455.966.31
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.85$181.50$271.14
Upside / Downside127.90%223.53%383.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.91874.27900.49
Payout Ratio98.41%96.73%95.04%93.36%91.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)627.94657.33687.89719.64752.62786.84832.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)591.97597.58603.19
Year 2 PV (M)557.88568.51579.23
Year 3 PV (M)525.59540.68556.05
Year 4 PV (M)495.01514.05533.63
Year 5 PV (M)466.05488.57511.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,048.157,388.587,742.04
Equity Value (M)9,684.6610,097.9610,526.08
Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
Fair Value$103.46$107.88$112.45
Upside / Downside84.42%92.29%100.44%

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