Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ADT Inc. (ADT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.95 - $10.97$8.79
Multi-Stage$17.36 - $19.13$18.23
Blended Fair Value$13.51
Current Price$8.71
Upside55.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.24%0.00%0.200.140.140.130.120.620.090.820.000.00
YoY Growth--41.75%1.15%9.26%6.42%-80.64%610.94%-89.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.45%2.17%1.92%1.68%1.42%14.31%1.33%10.35%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)640.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)448.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)128.1180.0748.04
Cash Retained (M)448.71448.71448.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-128.11-80.07-48.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)320.59368.64400.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)913.55913.55913.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.95$8.79$10.97
Upside / Downside-20.22%0.90%25.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)640.56634.15627.81621.53615.32609.16627.44
Payout Ratio29.95%41.96%53.97%65.98%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.85266.09338.83410.09479.89548.25580.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)248.70251.24253.78
Year 2 PV (M)295.99302.07308.20
Year 3 PV (M)334.83345.19355.75
Year 4 PV (M)366.21381.39397.04
Year 5 PV (M)391.04411.40432.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,219.5714,960.0215,730.99
Equity Value (M)15,856.3516,651.3117,478.36
Shares Outstanding (M)913.55913.55913.55
Fair Value$17.36$18.23$19.13
Upside / Downside99.28%109.27%119.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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