Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AIB Group plc (A5G.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.30 - $55.61$34.45
Multi-Stage$16.97 - $18.51$17.73
Blended Fair Value$26.09
Current Price$6.99
Upside273.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.59%0.00%0.280.070.050.030.020.190.130.100.020.00
YoY Growth--319.28%36.07%87.69%41.30%-90.02%41.41%30.40%575.68%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.33%1.74%1.37%1.24%1.12%6.05%3.61%1.87%0.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,674.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,367.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)534.90334.31200.59
Cash Retained (M)1,367.501,367.501,367.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-534.90-334.31-200.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)832.601,033.191,166.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,452.032,452.032,452.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.420.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.420.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.30$34.45$55.61
Upside / Downside233.40%392.89%695.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,674.502,848.343,033.483,230.663,440.653,664.303,774.23
Payout Ratio48.87%57.10%65.32%73.55%81.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,307.001,626.271,981.512,376.072,813.553,297.873,491.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,471.901,485.851,499.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,623.191,654.111,685.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,761.651,812.221,863.75
Year 4 PV (M)1,887.991,960.602,035.28
Year 5 PV (M)2,002.922,099.672,200.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,872.1534,459.8836,108.39
Equity Value (M)41,619.8043,472.3345,392.64
Shares Outstanding (M)2,452.032,452.032,452.03
Fair Value$16.97$17.73$18.51
Upside / Downside142.83%153.64%164.84%

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