Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cheerwin Group Limited (6601.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.21 - $3.18$2.68
Multi-Stage$3.74 - $4.10$3.91
Blended Fair Value$3.30
Current Price$2.55
Upside29.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.60%0.00%0.120.060.070.040.190.170.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--86.98%-12.62%63.86%-76.41%12.55%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.97%4.85%4.45%1.74%2.78%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)241.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)174.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0951.9331.16
Cash Retained (M)174.39174.39174.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.09-51.93-31.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.30122.46143.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.21$2.68$3.18
Upside / Downside-13.37%5.23%24.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.46411.30407.19403.12399.08395.09406.95
Payout Ratio58.02%64.42%70.81%77.21%83.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)241.07264.96288.35311.24333.65355.58376.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)240.50242.95245.40
Year 2 PV (M)237.56242.43247.36
Year 3 PV (M)232.75239.95247.29
Year 4 PV (M)226.47235.86245.53
Year 5 PV (M)219.07230.48242.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,827.584,026.894,234.42
Equity Value (M)4,983.945,218.565,462.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
Fair Value$3.74$3.91$4.10
Upside / Downside46.59%53.49%60.66%

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