Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (6369.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14,312.51 - $58,899.65$24,570.90
Multi-Stage$8,873.80 - $9,701.94$9,280.32
Blended Fair Value$16,925.61
Current Price$4,660.00
Upside263.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.15%13.84%279.75154.35154.22122.16109.88116.48119.71148.0266.1959.34
YoY Growth--81.24%0.08%26.24%11.18%-5.66%-2.70%-19.13%123.63%11.55%-22.47%
Dividend Yield--7.06%3.89%4.52%4.61%4.47%5.52%5.65%3.66%2.14%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,676.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)887.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,788.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)735.20459.50275.70
Cash Retained (M)2,788.502,788.502,788.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-735.20-459.50-275.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,053.302,329.002,512.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.747.747.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share265.44301.08324.84
LTM Dividend per Share114.73114.73114.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share265.44301.08324.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend380.17415.81439.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14,312.51$24,570.90$58,899.65
Upside / Downside207.14%427.27%1,163.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,676.003,914.944,169.414,440.424,729.055,036.445,187.53
Payout Ratio24.14%37.31%50.49%63.66%76.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)887.501,460.842,104.962,826.653,633.264,532.794,798.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,336.191,348.851,361.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.061,794.611,828.47
Year 3 PV (M)2,163.062,225.152,288.42
Year 4 PV (M)2,543.072,640.872,741.46
Year 5 PV (M)2,901.973,042.133,187.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,938.4760,736.9263,642.47
Equity Value (M)68,643.8271,788.5375,050.01
Shares Outstanding (M)7.747.747.74
Fair Value$8,873.80$9,280.32$9,701.94
Upside / Downside90.42%99.15%108.20%

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