Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited (601225.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.74 - $93.95$59.54
Multi-Stage$30.98 - $33.74$32.34
Blended Fair Value$45.94
Current Price$20.00
Upside129.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.18%20.50%1.542.201.710.890.430.400.460.330.200.19
YoY Growth---29.81%28.32%91.44%106.34%9.20%-13.03%39.56%63.10%8.20%-22.42%
Dividend Yield--7.78%8.88%8.41%5.43%3.92%5.30%4.82%4.24%3.24%4.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,129.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,357.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,772.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,825.932,391.201,434.72
Cash Retained (M)4,772.374,772.374,772.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,825.93-2,391.20-1,434.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)946.442,381.163,337.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,693.029,693.029,693.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.250.34
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.250.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.74$59.54$93.95
Upside / Downside103.69%197.71%369.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,129.6320,373.0621,697.3123,107.6324,609.6326,209.2626,995.53
Payout Ratio75.05%78.04%81.03%84.02%87.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,357.2615,899.5417,581.6519,415.2621,412.9623,588.3324,970.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,372.1414,508.3614,644.59
Year 2 PV (M)14,365.9114,639.5414,915.75
Year 3 PV (M)14,340.1414,751.8015,171.26
Year 4 PV (M)14,296.3014,846.1015,411.60
Year 5 PV (M)14,235.7714,923.3615,637.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)228,724.17239,771.64251,241.91
Equity Value (M)300,334.44313,440.80327,022.39
Shares Outstanding (M)9,693.029,693.029,693.02
Fair Value$30.98$32.34$33.74
Upside / Downside54.92%61.68%68.69%

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