Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Motion Technology Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. (4589.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.95 - $156.35$108.45
Multi-Stage$378.08 - $417.54$397.41
Blended Fair Value$252.93
Current Price$40.10
Upside530.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%1.581.480.680.390.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%117.27%73.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.59%3.34%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.9915.629.37
Cash Retained (M)40.6440.6440.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.99-15.62-9.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6525.0231.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.8725.8725.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.971.21
LTM Dividend per Share3.263.263.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.971.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.864.234.47
WACC / Discount Rate2.86%2.86%2.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$77.95$108.45$156.35
Upside / Downside94.38%170.46%289.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124.93123.68122.44121.22120.01118.81122.37
Payout Ratio67.47%71.98%76.48%80.99%85.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.2989.0293.6598.17102.60106.93113.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.86%2.86%2.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)85.6786.5587.42
Year 2 PV (M)86.7488.5290.32
Year 3 PV (M)87.5190.2292.98
Year 4 PV (M)88.0291.6795.43
Year 5 PV (M)88.2892.8897.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,345.739,832.3810,339.10
Equity Value (M)9,781.9510,282.2110,802.91
Shares Outstanding (M)25.8725.8725.87
Fair Value$378.08$397.41$417.54
Upside / Downside842.83%891.05%941.24%

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