Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (4188.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,476.50 - $3,136.09$2,097.36
Multi-Stage$1,916.03 - $2,101.70$2,007.11
Blended Fair Value$2,052.24
Current Price$851.30
Upside141.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.33%9.95%32.3431.3230.2927.2524.2140.3537.5527.6016.6514.57
YoY Growth--3.26%3.38%11.17%12.54%-39.98%7.45%36.04%65.81%14.29%16.27%
Dividend Yield--4.27%3.41%3.51%3.70%2.59%6.43%4.83%2.98%1.79%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114,231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)68,689.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22,846.2014,278.888,567.33
Cash Retained (M)68,689.0068,689.0068,689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22,846.20-14,278.88-8,567.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)45,842.8054,410.1360,121.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
LTM Dividend per Share32.3532.3532.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.9170.9975.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$1,476.50$2,097.36$3,136.09
Upside / Downside73.44%146.37%268.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114,231.00117,932.17121,753.25125,698.15129,770.86133,975.53137,994.79
Payout Ratio39.87%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,542.0058,841.8672,955.7787,922.50103,782.51120,577.97127,645.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)54,595.1055,129.0955,663.08
Year 2 PV (M)62,805.0064,039.5865,286.19
Year 3 PV (M)70,226.6372,307.4974,429.06
Year 4 PV (M)76,911.8579,965.3683,108.89
Year 5 PV (M)82,909.5187,044.2591,342.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,350,101.932,467,302.852,589,133.71
Equity Value (M)2,697,550.022,825,788.632,958,963.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
Fair Value$1,916.03$2,007.11$2,101.70
Upside / Downside125.07%135.77%146.88%

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