Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (3868.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.95 - $3.00$2.44
Multi-Stage$4.39 - $4.83$4.61
Blended Fair Value$3.52
Current Price$1.15
Upside206.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.54%0.00%0.040.090.100.140.120.080.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---58.00%-12.28%-24.17%15.46%49.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%6.34%3.99%3.19%2.24%3.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,760.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,061.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)698.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.12220.08132.05
Cash Retained (M)698.70698.70698.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.12-220.08-132.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)346.58478.62566.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,299.848,299.848,299.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.95$2.44$3.00
Upside / Downside69.23%111.77%160.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,760.611,743.011,725.581,708.321,691.241,674.331,724.55
Payout Ratio60.32%66.25%72.19%78.13%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,061.911,154.781,245.681,334.641,421.701,506.891,595.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,072.891,083.841,094.78
Year 2 PV (M)1,075.271,097.331,119.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,070.371,103.481,137.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,059.341,103.251,148.50
Year 5 PV (M)1,043.201,097.521,154.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,149.8832,771.9334,460.85
Equity Value (M)36,470.9638,257.3340,115.08
Shares Outstanding (M)8,299.848,299.848,299.84
Fair Value$4.39$4.61$4.83
Upside / Downside282.10%300.82%320.28%

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