Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

GeoVision Inc. (3356.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.17 - $38.64$33.47
Multi-Stage$51.99 - $57.04$54.46
Blended Fair Value$43.97
Current Price$53.20
Upside-17.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-5.49%3.241.561.341.120.000.000.000.953.824.69
YoY Growth--107.14%16.67%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.13%-18.52%-17.50%
Dividend Yield--6.12%2.50%2.79%3.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.87%9.50%7.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)426.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.3953.3732.02
Cash Retained (M)166.49166.49166.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.39-53.37-32.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.09113.12134.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.5180.5180.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.411.67
LTM Dividend per Share3.243.243.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.411.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.244.644.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-4.81%-3.81%-2.81%
Fair Value$28.17$33.47$38.64
Upside / Downside-47.05%-37.09%-27.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)426.97410.72395.08380.04365.57351.65362.20
Payout Ratio61.01%66.81%72.60%78.40%84.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.48274.38286.84297.96307.81316.49335.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-4.81%-3.81%-2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)247.90250.51253.11
Year 2 PV (M)234.15239.10244.09
Year 3 PV (M)219.75226.75233.89
Year 4 PV (M)205.11213.86222.90
Year 5 PV (M)190.53200.75211.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,088.243,253.893,426.58
Equity Value (M)4,185.684,384.864,591.98
Shares Outstanding (M)80.5180.5180.51
Fair Value$51.99$54.46$57.04
Upside / Downside-2.27%2.38%7.21%

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