Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (2555.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.46 - $10.94$9.13
Multi-Stage$13.85 - $15.18$14.50
Blended Fair Value$11.82
Current Price$8.68
Upside36.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.690.440.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---98.61%57.42%47.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%5.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,349.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,027.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.83168.64101.19
Cash Retained (M)321.17321.17321.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.83-168.64-101.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.34152.52219.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.46$9.13$10.94
Upside / Downside-14.07%5.23%26.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,349.151,335.651,322.301,309.081,295.981,283.021,321.52
Payout Ratio76.19%78.96%81.72%84.48%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,027.981,054.581,080.541,105.881,130.601,154.721,222.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)964.51974.35984.19
Year 2 PV (M)903.85922.39941.12
Year 3 PV (M)846.04872.21898.91
Year 4 PV (M)791.08823.87857.67
Year 5 PV (M)738.96777.44817.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,946.6315,724.9316,535.33
Equity Value (M)19,191.0720,095.1921,034.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
Fair Value$13.85$14.50$15.18
Upside / Downside59.55%67.07%74.88%

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