Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Launch Tech Company Limited (2488.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.88 - $69.97$44.87
Multi-Stage$22.43 - $24.48$23.44
Blended Fair Value$34.15
Current Price$11.58
Upside194.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.65%16.48%0.490.360.060.030.050.130.260.210.050.08
YoY Growth--35.60%540.97%88.27%-42.65%-59.44%-50.51%24.44%277.88%-35.07%-20.08%
Dividend Yield--5.66%20.80%2.36%1.23%1.46%4.47%4.95%3.28%0.83%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)435.04435.04435.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)307.42355.28387.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.51418.51418.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.850.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.850.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.88$44.87$69.97
Upside / Downside166.70%287.46%504.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.90874.26900.49
Payout Ratio31.82%43.46%55.09%66.73%78.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.07295.34398.75514.35643.30786.84832.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)266.78269.30271.83
Year 2 PV (M)325.35331.55337.80
Year 3 PV (M)379.09389.97401.06
Year 4 PV (M)428.28444.75461.69
Year 5 PV (M)473.18496.03519.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,513.647,876.568,253.36
Equity Value (M)9,386.329,808.1610,245.51
Shares Outstanding (M)418.51418.51418.51
Fair Value$22.43$23.44$24.48
Upside / Downside93.68%102.38%111.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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