Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (2357.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.35 - $102.67$34.99
Multi-Stage$10.81 - $11.81$11.30
Blended Fair Value$23.15
Current Price$4.04
Upside472.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS68.51%36.98%0.320.120.130.210.100.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--159.77%-8.84%-35.36%107.37%328.06%4.68%50.00%8.98%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.78%4.04%4.34%4.74%2.21%0.75%0.52%0.42%0.29%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,122.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,086.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,036.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)824.40515.25309.15
Cash Retained (M)2,036.012,036.012,036.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-824.40-515.25-309.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.611,520.761,726.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.35$34.99$102.67
Upside / Downside354.12%766.07%2,441.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,122.014,389.944,675.294,979.185,302.835,647.515,816.94
Payout Ratio50.61%58.49%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,086.002,567.463,102.703,696.674,354.755,082.765,380.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,357.692,380.032,402.38
Year 2 PV (M)2,616.402,666.232,716.54
Year 3 PV (M)2,862.582,944.753,028.48
Year 4 PV (M)3,096.653,215.743,338.23
Year 5 PV (M)3,319.033,479.343,645.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)72,073.5375,554.7179,169.12
Equity Value (M)86,325.8790,240.8094,300.53
Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
Fair Value$10.81$11.30$11.81
Upside / Downside167.62%179.75%192.34%

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