Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hello Group Inc. (1MO.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.65 - $22.14$19.50
Multi-Stage$25.91 - $28.40$27.13
Blended Fair Value$23.31
Current Price$59.06
Upside-60.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.97%0.00%3.314.423.883.945.194.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.23%13.92%-1.38%-24.13%28.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.14%9.49%6.13%9.93%5.34%2.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)854.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)346.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)508.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)170.88106.8064.08
Cash Retained (M)508.21508.21508.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-170.88-106.80-64.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.33401.41444.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.64216.64216.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.852.05
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.852.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.163.453.65
WACC / Discount Rate11.84%11.84%11.84%
Growth Rate-5.97%-4.97%-3.97%
Fair Value$16.65$19.50$22.14
Upside / Downside-71.81%-66.99%-62.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)854.39811.89771.50733.12696.65661.99681.85
Payout Ratio40.52%50.41%60.31%70.21%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)346.18409.31465.30514.70558.04595.79630.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.84%11.84%11.84%
Growth Rate-5.97%-4.97%-3.97%
Year 1 PV (M)362.11365.96369.81
Year 2 PV (M)364.18371.97379.84
Year 3 PV (M)356.39367.89379.62
Year 4 PV (M)341.85356.62371.87
Year 5 PV (M)322.89340.43358.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,864.844,074.784,293.74
Equity Value (M)5,612.265,877.656,153.61
Shares Outstanding (M)216.64216.64216.64
Fair Value$25.91$27.13$28.40
Upside / Downside-56.14%-54.06%-51.91%

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