Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Maike Tube Industry Holdings Limited (1553.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.03 - $9.07$7.47
Multi-Stage$11.82 - $13.01$12.41
Blended Fair Value$9.94
Current Price$1.28
Upside676.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.090.090.100.000.000.000.000.050.00
YoY Growth--20.36%5.96%-14.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.02%7.25%8.57%9.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.71%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0538.7823.27
Cash Retained (M)223.60223.60223.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.05-38.78-23.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.56184.82200.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.80433.80433.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.03$7.47$9.07
Upside / Downside371.41%483.68%608.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.23307.12304.05301.01298.00295.02303.87
Payout Ratio27.92%40.34%52.75%65.17%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.63123.89160.40196.17231.20265.52281.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)114.30115.47116.64
Year 2 PV (M)136.54139.34142.17
Year 3 PV (M)154.06158.83163.69
Year 4 PV (M)167.53174.47181.63
Year 5 PV (M)177.51186.75196.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,378.494,606.494,843.89
Equity Value (M)5,128.435,381.355,644.39
Shares Outstanding (M)433.80433.80433.80
Fair Value$11.82$12.41$13.01
Upside / Downside823.60%869.15%916.52%

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