Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Carpenter Tan Holdings Limited (0837.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.43 - $31.37$24.05
Multi-Stage$18.48 - $20.21$19.33
Blended Fair Value$21.69
Current Price$5.34
Upside306.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.40%3.64%0.360.230.330.160.250.450.260.230.240.26
YoY Growth--58.23%-31.24%104.05%-35.14%-44.55%76.48%12.63%-5.41%-6.95%2.38%
Dividend Yield--6.63%5.09%10.91%5.70%6.88%8.82%6.31%5.57%7.01%7.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0545.0327.02
Cash Retained (M)270.27270.27270.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.05-45.03-27.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)198.22225.24243.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.71248.71248.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.910.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.910.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$18.43$24.05$31.37
Upside / Downside245.11%350.37%487.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.27376.17392.79410.13428.24447.15460.57
Payout Ratio24.98%37.98%50.99%63.99%77.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.00142.89200.27262.45329.73402.44426.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)128.75129.99131.24
Year 2 PV (M)162.60165.76168.95
Year 3 PV (M)192.00197.62203.35
Year 4 PV (M)217.35225.88234.65
Year 5 PV (M)239.02250.81263.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,657.273,837.544,024.86
Equity Value (M)4,596.994,807.605,026.11
Shares Outstanding (M)248.71248.71248.71
Fair Value$18.48$19.33$20.21
Upside / Downside246.12%261.98%278.43%

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