Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy Co., Limited (0579.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.04 - $140.25$131.43
Multi-Stage$29.41 - $32.22$30.79
Blended Fair Value$81.11
Current Price$2.15
Upside3,672.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.95%15.15%0.140.120.080.080.070.070.060.060.060.04
YoY Growth--16.31%45.54%10.03%3.96%8.25%8.16%0.00%8.35%28.60%29.80%
Dividend Yield--7.72%7.61%5.10%3.64%3.37%5.51%3.71%3.61%2.64%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,814.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,481.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,332.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,162.83726.77436.06
Cash Retained (M)3,332.433,332.433,332.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,162.83-726.77-436.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,169.612,605.672,896.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,244.518,244.518,244.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$119.04$131.43$140.25
Upside / Downside5,436.74%6,013.21%6,423.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,814.136,192.056,594.537,023.177,479.687,965.868,204.84
Payout Ratio42.68%52.15%61.61%71.07%80.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,481.703,228.974,062.914,991.626,023.897,169.277,589.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,031.973,060.713,089.45
Year 2 PV (M)3,582.273,650.503,719.37
Year 3 PV (M)4,132.594,251.224,372.10
Year 4 PV (M)4,682.934,863.035,048.26
Year 5 PV (M)5,233.315,486.085,748.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)221,812.32232,525.94243,649.59
Equity Value (M)242,475.38253,837.46265,627.29
Shares Outstanding (M)8,244.518,244.518,244.51
Fair Value$29.41$30.79$32.22
Upside / Downside1,267.93%1,332.03%1,398.54%

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