Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CITIC Limited (0267.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133.04 - $722.03$259.70
Multi-Stage$115.18 - $126.32$120.64
Blended Fair Value$190.17
Current Price$10.78
Upside1,664.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.60%-3.90%0.520.650.640.540.390.440.400.340.300.27
YoY Growth---19.76%2.45%18.70%39.74%-12.49%9.99%17.65%13.34%10.61%-65.30%
Dividend Yield--6.07%8.39%7.75%6.99%7.01%4.22%3.26%2.99%2.70%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107,374.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35,599.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,774.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,474.9013,421.818,053.09
Cash Retained (M)71,774.8971,774.8971,774.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,474.90-13,421.81-8,053.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,299.9958,353.0863,721.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$133.04$259.70$722.03
Upside / Downside1,134.10%2,309.06%6,597.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107,374.50112,461.87117,790.29123,371.17129,216.46135,338.71139,398.87
Payout Ratio33.15%44.52%55.89%67.26%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35,599.6150,072.1865,836.2682,981.73101,604.10121,804.84128,943.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)46,769.0147,219.8547,670.68
Year 2 PV (M)57,436.5658,549.2459,672.59
Year 3 PV (M)67,618.7969,593.1771,605.61
Year 4 PV (M)77,331.7480,356.9583,470.05
Year 5 PV (M)86,591.0090,845.7895,266.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,014,794.653,162,931.383,316,834.86
Equity Value (M)3,350,541.753,509,496.363,674,520.00
Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
Fair Value$115.18$120.64$126.32
Upside / Downside968.44%1,019.13%1,071.75%

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