Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Safety Godown Company, Limited (0237.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.98 - $3.25$2.54
Multi-Stage$2.23 - $2.43$2.32
Blended Fair Value$2.43
Current Price$1.95
Upside24.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-26.77%4.95%0.080.050.080.520.120.360.190.441.430.06
YoY Growth--37.79%-31.06%-84.65%333.15%-66.67%92.77%-58.01%-69.04%2,429.41%21.43%
Dividend Yield--3.88%2.80%3.62%16.52%3.52%10.47%3.99%7.61%22.93%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.728.575.14
Cash Retained (M)19.8419.8419.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.72-8.57-5.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1211.2714.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.00405.00405.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Fair Value$1.98$2.54$3.25
Upside / Downside1.38%30.46%66.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.5871.2974.1077.0280.0683.2285.72
Payout Ratio71.07%74.86%78.64%82.43%86.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.7453.3758.2863.4969.0374.9079.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Year 1 PV (M)48.0548.5148.98
Year 2 PV (M)47.2448.1649.09
Year 3 PV (M)46.3447.7049.09
Year 4 PV (M)45.3647.1548.99
Year 5 PV (M)44.3146.5148.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)670.14703.33737.82
Equity Value (M)901.44941.36982.76
Shares Outstanding (M)405.00405.00405.00
Fair Value$2.23$2.32$2.43
Upside / Downside14.14%19.20%24.44%

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