Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (002749.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.35 - $32.67$21.82
Multi-Stage$12.05 - $13.12$12.58
Blended Fair Value$17.20
Current Price$14.99
Upside14.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.59%22.41%0.820.200.210.210.200.110.330.490.160.13
YoY Growth--317.30%-7.77%0.75%4.03%85.67%-66.37%-33.33%200.00%25.00%20.00%
Dividend Yield--5.40%1.30%2.38%2.29%1.83%1.12%2.64%4.07%0.99%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)282.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)92.4692.4692.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.4045.5564.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)460.70460.70460.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.35$21.82$32.67
Upside / Downside2.39%45.53%117.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.29399.68425.66453.33482.80514.18529.60
Payout Ratio75.36%78.29%81.22%84.14%87.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)282.83312.91345.71381.45420.38462.76489.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)281.85284.52287.19
Year 2 PV (M)280.48285.82291.21
Year 3 PV (M)278.75286.75294.90
Year 4 PV (M)276.70287.34298.28
Year 5 PV (M)274.35287.60301.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,161.124,362.104,570.77
Equity Value (M)5,553.245,794.136,043.72
Shares Outstanding (M)460.70460.70460.70
Fair Value$12.05$12.58$13.12
Upside / Downside-19.59%-16.10%-12.49%

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