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Susco Public Company Limited (SUSCO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.58 - $54.74$51.30
Multi-Stage$8.36 - $9.14$8.74
Blended Fair Value$30.02
Current Price$2.56
Upside1,072.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.23%10.95%0.280.400.220.170.140.170.160.090.110.09
YoY Growth---29.96%81.89%29.31%24.46%-20.63%11.69%75.00%-20.01%25.10%-11.16%
Dividend Yield--9.78%9.46%6.01%5.22%4.00%10.62%5.45%2.52%2.67%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)196.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.2733.9220.35
Cash Retained (M)75.2375.2375.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.27-33.92-20.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.9641.3154.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)985.12985.12985.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Fair Value$22.58$51.30$54.74
Upside / Downside781.97%1,903.85%2,038.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.36288.77307.31327.03348.02370.36381.47
Payout Ratio72.28%75.82%79.37%82.91%86.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)196.12218.95243.89271.14300.88333.32352.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Year 1 PV (M)203.75205.69207.62
Year 2 PV (M)211.22215.24219.31
Year 3 PV (M)218.52224.80231.19
Year 4 PV (M)225.66234.35243.28
Year 5 PV (M)232.64243.89255.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,143.987,489.317,847.86
Equity Value (M)8,235.778,613.279,004.83
Shares Outstanding (M)985.12985.12985.12
Fair Value$8.36$8.74$9.14
Upside / Downside226.57%241.54%257.06%

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