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Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.55 - $16.62$14.02
Multi-Stage$20.05 - $21.95$20.98
Blended Fair Value$17.50
Current Price$18.56
Upside-5.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.271.261.251.171.992.262.253.323.30
YoY Growth---100.00%0.86%0.81%6.85%-41.26%-11.95%0.47%-32.04%0.49%1.13%
Dividend Yield--0.00%7.36%7.10%8.20%8.26%13.68%10.29%11.65%13.69%11.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3113.327.99
Cash Retained (M)22.8522.8522.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.31-13.32-7.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.549.5314.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.3065.3065.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.150.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.281.281.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.150.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.55$14.02$16.62
Upside / Downside-37.79%-24.44%-10.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.57105.50104.45103.40102.37101.35104.39
Payout Ratio78.56%80.85%83.14%85.42%87.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.7285.3086.8388.3389.7991.2196.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)77.4178.2078.99
Year 2 PV (M)71.5172.9874.46
Year 3 PV (M)66.0268.0670.14
Year 4 PV (M)60.9063.4266.03
Year 5 PV (M)56.1459.0662.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)977.501,028.401,081.40
Equity Value (M)1,309.471,370.121,433.12
Shares Outstanding (M)65.3065.3065.30
Fair Value$20.05$20.98$21.95
Upside / Downside8.04%13.04%18.24%

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