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Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.62 - $9.53$8.04
Multi-Stage$10.31 - $11.34$10.82
Blended Fair Value$9.43
Current Price$14.70
Upside-35.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.302.691.61
Cash Retained (M)21.2221.2221.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.30-2.69-1.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9218.5319.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.9422.9422.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.810.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.810.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.62$8.04$9.53
Upside / Downside-54.96%-45.31%-35.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.5021.2921.0720.8620.6520.4521.06
Payout Ratio1.31%19.05%36.78%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.284.057.7511.3714.9218.4019.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.683.723.75
Year 2 PV (M)6.386.516.64
Year 3 PV (M)8.508.769.03
Year 4 PV (M)10.1210.5310.97
Year 5 PV (M)11.3211.9112.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)196.46206.69217.34
Equity Value (M)236.45248.12260.26
Shares Outstanding (M)22.9422.9422.94
Fair Value$10.31$10.82$11.34
Upside / Downside-29.89%-26.43%-22.83%

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